On Mike and Mike in the Morning today, Mike Greenberg and guest host Trey Wingo are discussing what kind of chances Rocco Mediate has of beating Tiger Woods in today's U.S. Open playoff. Their basic thesis, that Woods is the clear favorite, is undeniable. But they're taking it to an absolutely ridiculous extreme: According to Greenberg and Wingo, a Mediate victory today would be comparable to Buster Douglas defeating Mike Tyson in 1990.
Let's get real here. The odds at Bodog say that if you bet $100 on Mediate and he wins today, you'll make a profit of $275. In 1990, the Mirage in Vegas was posting 45-1 odds on Douglas, meaning that if you had bet $100 on him, you would have made $4,500.
I'm not sure if Greenberg and Wingo are dramatically underrating Mediate or if they're forgetting how big an underdog Douglas was, but there's just no comparison.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-16-2008 @ 10:11AM
UkraineNotWeak said...
Especially when you consider that over the four days, Rocco played the most consistent golf in the field tee to green. These guys are so blinded by their man love for Tiger, they can't see anything else.
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6-16-2008 @ 10:43AM
willmore2000 said...
Yes, it is like Douglas vs. Tyson, though of course the odds wouldn't match up.
Dominance in a sport can not be judged by the guys who set the bets. Their job is not to show dominance, it is to get as much action on either side of the bet. But that is irrelevant.
In boxing, the betting will be far more variable. In boxing, the best fighters win 95% of the time. And when they lose, it's not because they aren't great fighters, it's because they were fighting better fighters, or there was a 5% luck variance - known as the puncher's chance. A slugger will always have a shot at winning, even against the greatest fighters of all time.
In golf, the best golfer in the world, the greatest golfer in history, has no more than a 30% chance of winning a tournament. Certainly the odds get better for Tiger in a 1-on-1 match play scenario, but even so, the luck involved is tremendous. Still, tomorrow, Tiger Woods has, I would say, a 75% chance of winning, bum knee and all.
Any other golfer in the world, would have no more than a 60% chance, and probably more like a 50-50% or worse against Rocco.
That kind of difference between Rocco and Tiger in the world of golf is equal to the difference between Douglas and Tyson in their fight.
It doesn't mean that Tiger has the 95%-99% chance of winning as Tyson had, it just means that Tiger is by far the greatest thing on the golf course right now, and Rocco will have to get awfully lucky to win.
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6-24-2008 @ 6:33AM
Debra said...
How dare that sports announcer compare Rocco to the man who cleans Tiger Woods pool!!!!!!! If that were said about Tiger Woods it would be a racist comment. I am an Italian American and I am repulsed by that sportcaster and want an apology and a suspension. It sickens me in this country that certain things can be said about certain nationalities and nobody cares!!!
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