Handicapping Bethpage: The Favorites

Bethpage Black is 7,426 yards of pure nastiness, and the 2009 U.S. Open will play to a gruesome par of just 70. It is one of the toughest tests in golf, and it will be home to the best golfers in the world this weekend. Coming on the heels of your Sleepers and Regular Joes for this week at Bethpage, here are the Favorites.

Henrik Stenson -- Best Finish: t-26 -- He won the Players this year. He stared down Geoff Ogilvy at the Accenture Match Play in 2007, eventually taking down the steely Australian for his first PGA Tour victory. He had two top-10 finishes in major championships last year and looks to be where people thought he might be a couple of years ago. If a European is taking this title, I'm looking at Stenson as the one to do it. Also, what person in Long Island doesn't love stripping down in their underwear when things get a little crazy?

Geoff Ogilvy -- WON -- I know this is crazy, but I think people are picking Ogilvy more than they're taking Tiger. Scott Van Pelt likes him to make some noise this week. A lot of the bloggers around the Internet are leaning towards Geoff. Even some FanHouse writers thought he'd be a good pick. No matter what you say about Ogilvy's first U.S. Open title, he did have to make a gutsy putt on the 18th hole to even give himself a shot at a playoff, right before Phil Mickelson made sloppy joes on the 72nd hole to give Ogilvy the title. If the putter gets a little hot at Bethpage Black, be careful, because he has emerged as the only person on tour that even sniffs the mental toughness of Mr. Woods.

Kenny Perry -- t-3 -- Call me crazy for this, but I like Perry this week. No expectations, a lot of fanfare from the crowd for his emotional loss at Augusta and the ability to really smoke the ball down the fairway. Perry has yet to miss a cut this season, and is in the top-60 in both distance and accuracy off the tee. If the course plays as long as some think it might because of the wet conditions, a guy that can hit it straight and far is already at a huge advantage over 70 percent of the field. Perry is one of those guys that could be around on Sunday and is due for a shot or two to bounce his way for a change.

Phil Mickelson -- 2 -- It is the one tournament that has eluded him throughout his career. In 1995, he couldn't close on Corey Pavin. At Pinehurst in 1999, Payne Stewart needed a miraculous putt for par on the 18th to beat out Phil by a shot. In 2002 he couldn't muster enough to beat out Tiger at Bethpage. In 2004 he was well within reach of Retief Goosen before a double-bogey on the 17th forced another head shake on missed opportunity. Then came 2006, and we all know what happened at Winged Foot. Phil shouldn't win this week, because he has way too much on his mind, but if he did, it might be the golf story of this decade. Like I mentioned to Scott Van Pelt, maybe not having his mind completely on the game will help Mickelson. Instead of focusing on every little detail, he could go out, like at the 1991 Tucson Open, and let his talent guide him.

Tiger Woods -- WON -- What more can I say? Previous winner here. Hitting the ball like god. Confident. Thinks it's his week. Will get to 15 majors faster than Jack Nicklaus had ever dreamed of. It seems the stars are aligned for a Woods win. I guess the easiest part is just going out and winning the hardest golf tournament and the nastiest track in golf in tough conditions. Seems easy enough.