Tiger's British Open Chances Look Bleak

Posted Jul 16, 2009 11:45PM By Ryan Wilson (RSS feed)

Back in April, after 36 holes of uninspiring golf, I wrote that Tiger Woods' Green Jacket Dreams would have to wait another year. I wasn't trying to be contrarian, or get the torch and pitchfork crowd adequately riled (I'm the biggest Tiger apologist I know), it was just that history suggested that Woods wasn't winning the Masters after a pedestrian 70-72 start. It was too much to overcome, even for the world No. 1.

Here's what I wrote at the time: "Woods averaged an opening round 72.5, but followed with a 70 in Round 2. In his four Masters victories, the numbers are even more staggering: 71, on average, on Thursday; 66.8 on Friday. ... Woods has carded Thursday-Friday rounds in the 70s on seven occasions at Augusta, and has finished no better than second."

Tiger played the weekend in 70-68 and tied for sixth place.

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We're only 18 holes into the British Open, so Woods' fate isn't quite so established. That said, on a day when the weather cooperated and low scores were to be had, Tiger could only manage a 1-over, 71, good for T68, seven shots behind leader Miguel Angel Jimenez. Those are a lot of names to leapfrog.

Even with 54 holes to go, history isn't on Woods' side. In 11 previous British Open appearances, Tiger's average first-round score is 69.9, and his average finish is 10.5. Seven times he's finished in the top 10, and on those occasions he averaged 68.9 in the opening round. His three Open victories? 66.7 on Day 1.

So, right, things look bleak. Well, as bleak as they can look for a guy who will be worth more than a billion dollars any day now and already owns 14 major championships. Money and accolades aside, Woods was predictably unhappy after Thursday's 71.

"Realistically, I probably should have shot about 1 or 2 under par today ... But I made a few mistakes. ... The misses I had were the same shots I was hitting on the range ... So I need to go work on that and get it squared away."

But that's the thing about Woods: even when his swing is off, he finds a way to get around the course without shooting himself out of the tournament. I don't think he's winning this week, but as long as we're relying on history to make assumptions about the future, I feel safe in writing that Tiger will be logging another top-10 finish this week. Because despite the struggles, that's all he's done this season, every time he's teed it up.

Fans and media can talk all they want about Tiger's decline, but anybody else puts up those numbers (which include three wins in nine starts) and the same people are falling over themselves to hail the arrival of Woods' successor.

Forgetting the soap-box sermon for the moment, Tiger tees off in nine hours or so, and he has some work to do -- to make the cut, never mind getting in contention.

Latest British Open Photos

Tom Watson of the U.S. acknowledges the crowd on the 17th green during the first round of the British Open Golf Championship at the Turnberry Golf Club in Scotland, July 16, 2009. REUTERS/Eddie Keogh (BRITAIN SPORT GOLF IMAGES OF THE DAY)

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Swedish golfer Fredrik Jacobson watches his drive on the 17th tee on the first day of the 138th British Open Championship at Turnberry Golf Course in south west Scotland, on July 16, 2009. AFP PHOTO/Adrian Dennis (Photo credit should read ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images)

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Francesco Molinari of Italy plays a shot from the rough on the 17th hole during the first round of the British Open Golf Championship at the Turnberry Golf Club in Scotland, July 16, 2009. REUTERS/Russell Cheyne (BRITAIN SPORT GOLF)

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US golfer Hunter Mahan watches his drive on the 15th tee on the first day of the 138th British Open Championship at Turnberry Golf Course in south west Scotland, on July 16, 2009. AFP PHOTO/Glyn Kirk (Photo credit should read GLYN KIRK/AFP/Getty Images)

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US golfer Anthony Kim stands on the 15th tee, on the first day of the 138th British Open Championship at Turnberry Golf Course in south west Scotland, on July 16, 2009. AFP PHOTO/Glyn Kirk (Photo credit should read GLYN KIRK/AFP/Getty Images)

AFP/Getty Images

French golfer Thomas Levet putts on the 8th green with the island of Ailsa Craig in the background, on the first day of the 138th British Open Championship at Turnberry Golf Course in south west Scotland, on July 16, 2009. AFP PHOTO/Glyn Kirk (Photo credit should read GLYN KIRK/AFP/Getty Images)

AFP/Getty Images

French golfer Thomas Levet lines up his putt on the 8th green with the island of Ailsa Craig in the background, on the first day of the 138th British Open Championship at Turnberry Golf Course in south west Scotland, on July 16, 2009. AFP PHOTO/Glyn Kirk (Photo credit should read GLYN KIRK/AFP/Getty Images)

AFP/Getty Images

Italian golfer Francesco Molinari plays out of the rough on the 17th hole on the first day of the 138th British Open Championship at Turnberry Golf Course in south west Scotland, on July 16, 2009. AFP PHOTO/Adrian Dennis (Photo credit should read ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images)

AFP/Getty Images