Questioning Tiger Woods' Game Like Never Before

So it has come to this. The man who awed us for years in the golf world has been relegated to a sourpuss on the links who can't win the big one. Sure, he has claimed three events this year, but his missed cut at the '09 British Open -- on a course that some felt he would dominate -- has the golf world abuzz.

The Tiger Woods Conundrum is a tricky one. The biggest problem with it lies in the fact that Tiger has molded our expectations of him. He won his first major at 21. He never seemed to miss the big shot or the big moment, echoing these words by Earl Woods in the old Nike commercial, "I promise you, that you'll never meet another person as mentally tough as you in your entire life, and he hasn't, and he never will." He was a golfing machine.

Now, some might argue that he has fallen off. He hasn't won the Masters since 2005 on a course he should dominate. It has been five majors since Tiger last hoisted a trophy. His golf swing seems to be a light switch at this point in his career; on at certain times, and very much off at others.

With three tournaments in a row coming for Woods, a few questions are in order.

Have we seen the best of Tiger?

My initial answer is an emphatic "NO," but I did a little research and came up with a few things.

First, Tiger is 33. The average winner on tour this year is 36.65 years old. What does that tell us, if anything? Well, first it just goes to show how long it takes golfers to learn how to win on the PGA Tour. While there are some extremely solid young talents, it takes a long time to figure out how to pull out a win on the 72nd hole (look at Tim Clark if you don't believe me).

Tiger, three years short of the average age, is obviously not past his winner's prime given the following facts, but there is the big elephant in the room that is what happened at the end of 2008. Woods went through a pretty intense surgery on his knee, and while he has been obviously successful this year on certain weeks, he has visually struggled at the bigger, more exposed tournaments. Ernie Els went through a similar surgery, and has never been the same golfer. I fear that the same might occur with Woods, who hasn't had as bad a year in the majors since 2004. Speaking of his struggle with the majors ...

How should we rate his return from knee surgery?

Tiger was back on the scene early in 2009, when he returned at the WGC-Accenture Match Play, finishing t-17 at the event he won in '08. After that, Tiger was off to the races, finishing in the top-10 in every stroke play event he started until his missed cut at the British.

With three wins, most golfers would be thrilled with their '09, but Tiger's season is graded on majors. So, to make it easier to tell how he has done this season, I decided to make his wins in each season like grades in college. So, for wins in a major championship, Tiger gets a 4.0, for WGC events, the Players and the Tour Championship, Tiger gets a 3.0 and for all other wins, I'm giving Tiger a 2.0.

This year, Tiger's three wins have him at a 2.0 grade for quality of wins. In '08 and '06, he was at a 2.75, and just a hair lower in '07 at 2.71. His 3.0 in 2005 was helped with his Masters and British Open wins. While the GPA-style system isn't the best way to describe how Tiger has played (since there are only four majors, and tons of smaller tournaments) it does give us a small look into the quality of wins Tiger has accumulated (and also, "quality" in this sense is obviously a Tiger-style term. Nobody, not even myself, would argue that the Memorial is a smaller tier tournament, but it is in the terms of Tiger's schedule).

His return from knee surgery has been impressive at certain tournaments, but he is still fighting a golf swing that almost seemed more pure before he went under the knife. I think if Tiger himself rated his return so far, it would be a B+, and I don't think that is too far off. Yes, he has won some quality events, but he still can't break through in anything major, and Tiger knows better than anyone that those events are when your game is truly tested. So far, when the going's got tough, Tiger hasn't got going.

How important is the PGA Championship for Tiger?

Well, long-term it is only one more major, but in the short term it is a "must-win" for Woods. If he can't pull this out, he will have to answer plenty of questions about how Tiger is going through his longest major drought (six majors) since his 10-tournament drought between the British in '02 to the Masters in '05.

More than that, it really will give the Woods doubters some ground to stand on. So many times, one could choose to stand up for Tiger, arguing, "It's just golf, and even Tiger can struggle with this difficult game." This time, those arguments might fall on deaf ears. If Tiger can't pull out glory's last shot at Hazeltine, a few things might be highlighted as problems.

First, Tiger seems to be super cautious in major championships, something that didn't seem to be the case when he was snagging them by the handful. Between 2000-02, when Woods won six out of 12 majors, he was a combined -- get ready for this -- 103 strokes under par. He went through a similar stretch between '05-'06, when he played eight majors 54-under par. In the last three years, Tiger is just 10-under par in 12 majors, which is part of the reason he has only won two times in that stretch. If Tiger heads to these tournaments thinking par is an acceptable number, and the conditions calls for something else, it is nearly impossible to switch his mentality. Maybe the aggressive Tiger needs to come back out and test the waters. He might see different results.

What should we expect from Woods moving forward?

The thing everyone needs to realize is that Woods isn't going to win every major. He just isn't. The competition is too tough, and if you don't believe that, check the list of major winners this season -- Angel Cabrera, Lucas Glover and Stewart Cink. These guys won major championships with Tiger in the field. It isn't like they're limping into a green jacket. The best are around, and these are the guys to beat them.

People argue all the time that Jack Nicklaus had tougher competition than Tiger does currently. I throw that argument to the curb. What is factual about that is that Jack had bigger names he was fighting with, because the tour had a handful of guys who could win on a consistent basis, and the rest might luck into something every four or five years. Now, Tiger has a laaaarge group of guys who can beat him on any given week (Rich Beem took him down in a PGA Championship, if you ever need facts to back up my point), and the talent pool is deeper.

If it isn't Phil Mickelson winning over Tiger, it might just as easily be Chez Reavie or Brian Gay. With the amount of work these players put into their golf swings these days, any player just needs a hot week with the putter and he will most likely leave the course with a top-10.

If you think Tiger can keep up the winning level in majors that he has had in the past, you aren't giving the game of golf enough respect. Sure, he could win two or three in a row if he grooves his swing, but it isn't likely, and shouldn't be expected. I think it is time we just realize that Tiger is a great golfer, who has revamped this game, but nothing more.

The day he sprouts angel wings, I'll retract my argument.